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Peace Through Patience, Not Air Power

By JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH (John Kenneth Galbraith, a professor emeritus of economics at Harvard, is the author, most recently, of "The Good Society.")

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. The New York Times, April 25, 1999

Fifty-four years ago this month, I became the director for overall effects of the United States Strategic Bombing Survey. After some months of work with a talented staff, the interrogation of Albert Speer and other German officials and the examination of excellent German records, we concluded that the great strategic air attacks had not appreciably reduced German war production. Nor had they effectively shortened the war. That was won by ground troops with tactical air support up from Normandy and across the vast plains of Russia. This finding was strongly assailed by friends of the Army Air Force, as it then was, but in the end was mostly accepted. It was also learned, not surprisingly, that the ordinary citizens of the German cities - Cologne, Hamburg, Berlin and, just as the war was ending - Dresden - were far more in fear of the American and British bombers than of their own, highly adverse Government. In Japan, a similar study found the country's industrial plants to be more vulnerable, but it was civilians - men, women and children - who suffered, including at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The war was won by ground troops fighting island by island up from Guadalcanal, and by sea power, including, of course, carriers and combat aircraft. A few years later in Korea the situation was the same. That war was brought to an end by troops on the ground. Air power did not save Gen. Douglas MacArthur's forces on his venture to the Yalu River or his own personal command. Twice the weight of bombs dropped on Germany did not affect the outcome of the war in Vietnam or in Cambodia. It took ground troops to recover Kuwait. Saddam Hussein has survived the subsequent air attacks and perhaps been strengthened by the public reaction thereto. In warfare, bombs have seldom won the day. And now we are relying on aircraft in Serbia and Kosovo. In keeping with the history, it is possible that our aerial assault has, indeed, strengthened Slobodan Milosevic. For the ordinary Serbian citizen there is less to fear from him than from our bombers. And one can at least wonder whether many of the refugees from Kosovo left because of the threat from the air. Our commitment to air power has two sources. There is, first, our hope, real but rarely enunciated, that we can have war without casualties - a clean, hygienic operation, away from the arms, shells, physical miseries, wounds and death of ground warfare. And which avoids the domestic political effect from the body bags being unloaded. More important, technical achievement, public expenditure and industrial influence all urge the use of air power. All that is lacking is military effectiveness and tolerance from the enemy civilians who are being bombed. What then should be our concern and that of the NATO alliance on Serbia, including, Kosovo? I do not urge ground operations. These would only provoke the adverse public and political reaction that has made air power so popular. And I do not wish to consign the young to injury and death and certainly not when there is better solution. The better solution is patience. We should suspend the bombing, isolate Serbia economically and use our ample resources and organzational skills to make the life of the refugees as secure, even pleasant, as possible. And we should give strong financial support to Albania and Macedonia to help with the huge burden imposed on them. Let us open the United States yet further to refugees That has been our greatest past service to the deprived and despairlng of the world, and all to our own ultimate benefit. Time is the greatest of all curatives. If with our NATO allies we stop the bombing and are open to negotiation, eventually reason will rule. There will be negotiations, some kind of settlement. War, on the contrary, does nol heal, and its effect on participants and those unhappily present is all too evident.